Derren Brown - The Lottery

I was really pleased to see that we had a new series of Derren Brown stuff on Channel 4 in September. I've followed his work for a few years and have always been impressed with his talent. I know that a lot of people don't like his arrogance, but for me it's a character trait which I find quite endearing. And it's just showmanship - like most of the stuff he does, it's not real.

For those of you who have never heard of the man, he is a magician. he claims never to use "stooges" or plants in his audiences and uses techniques of mis-direction, psychology, memory and conjuring tricks. He has always consistently denied that there is any such thing as being hypnotised and has said that he is no psychic and does not have any special abilities like those claimed by such charlatans. Nevertheless, his work is often jaw-dropping and leaves you mesmerised.

His most recent show started on Wednesday night, just before the lottery draw. he claimed to have already picked the 6 numbers which he hoped would match the 6 numbers drawn, he showed the lottery draw live on a TV and then showed us the 6 balls which had been sitting on a stand next to him all along. He got all 6 right. And then he told us that on Friday, he would explain how he did it. Look at it here on you tube if you missed it.

In the "explanation" programme, Derren took us through how people can be influenced to make certain choices when they are in heightened emotional states (especially fear), then went on to talk about patterns observable in random events (e.g. the toss of a coin) and then went off into a lot of gumph about "higher mathematics" and using a group of people to predict the numbers of the lottery using "Automatic Writing" and averaging up the results to give one prediction. He led his audience to believe this is how he "predicted" the 6 numbers for the Wednesday night lottery.

My first impressions are that he is taking the piss out of stupid people here. People will actually believe this stuff. Quite a few already believe in ghosts, talking to dead people, UFOs, alien abductions, virgin births, creation myths and that killing westerners in acts of terrorism will earn you lots of children to rape when you get to heaven as your reward. People are very stupid. If this is evidence enough, read some of the opinions on the Burton Albion message board after a defeat.

Derren Brown did NOT predict the numbers of the lottery. He made us THINK he had.

How did he do it? I don't know. If I knew, I might be as rich and famous as him. But here is the evidence:

a) There is a 14 million to one chance of guessing the six numbers. As Derren himself says, a healthy man has more chance of dying during the draw than actually winning it.

b) Guessing the six numbers on that particular night when the cameras were rolling? Even longer odds.

c) He never revealed the numbers to us before the lottery was drawn. He made an excuse that the BBC wouldn't allow it. This is rubbish. He was giving his prediction, not the actual numbers. And when he did this you could not buy a ticket as the machines had closed so there is no way it would interfere with the result.

d) He looks genuinely nervous and excited. Why? He's been planning it for months, it's live on TV, he'd risk getting it wrong? No way. All showmanship to make it more believable to the gullible.

e) In the explanation programme, he never shows his group of "special" people the actual numbers either - he works the averages out for himself and secretly selects the balls.

f) In the clip the camera is a handheld as we can see the shake. Nothing on the "set" moves. Why not use a fixed camera and avoid the camera shake?

g) In his own book "Tricks of the Mind", Derren debunks myths about probability and chance, automatic writing and so-called "higher mathematics".

h) In the explanation programme he tells us that his system "only works if it is not used for profit". Appealing to the religious morality of supernatural beliefs perhaps?

So what is Derren trying to do here? I think we need to watch the rest of the series as I suspect that he will have a wider and more important message for us. His next show is called "Control the Nation". I suspect that the whole series is about how we are "sold" information and that we rarely question it. Sceptics everywhere will be wearing their "I told you so" t-shirts. I must get mine out of the wash.